Despite all the doom scrolling, Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.
The time for vibing is over. It’s too late to change anyone’s opinions (especially because national level events like debates are over). Harris will finish her Media Blitz soon (including a Fox News showing) while Trump retreats into his shell hoping no one notices how damn stupid his mouth is.
This is the time for doing. The focus should be on voter drives and other get out the vote pushes. It’s mid October, and the October surprises are against Trump and in our favor.
It’s not the lead we wanted but it’s a lead nonetheless. Don’t talk yourself out of believing this lead because of a bad poll or two.
I already mailed in my ballot. I can doomscroll all I want until next election.
You managed to Vote Early, but you have completely skipped the bit on Voting Often.
They won’t let me vote multiple times because I’m not a Republican :(
Harris doesn’t have a comfortable lead in the EC, what are you talking about? Even your own posted article says she’s within the margin of error nationally, and the race is closer in the swing states than in the national polls. That’s by definition not a “comfortable lead.”
Biden won with 4.5% more of the national vote. Harris currently is polling at about half that. In the EC, Biden won by only 78,000 votes despite his large +4.5% popular vote lead.
Two different polls in the last two days have flipped two swing states over to Trump. Nate Silver’s polling aggregator reflect the many, many polls that have shown Trump gaining in multiple swing states. Silver’s projections reflect this by indicating a six point drop for Harris to win the EC since the end of September.
Optimism is fine, hopium is not. No high quality polling shows Harris with a “comfortable lead” in the electoral college.
These “don’t worry be happy” posts seem like they’re coming straight from the Trump campaign. Harris has a comfortable lead, I guess I don’t have to worry! Even if you say “but you have to vote,” the psychological effect of denying the state of the race with hopium like this is to make people feel less concerned and more complacent about voting.
Biden won by only 78,000 votes despite his large +4.5% popular vote lead.
The magic of the Electoral College. 2024 is expected to get even worse, as states like California and Texas lean harder left than at any point in recent history, but California can’t yield any more EC votes than it already does and Texas Dems will still be a point or two shy of winning the state under the most Dem-leaning models.
Swing states are all that matter. And once they’ve swung far enough (as in the case of Virginia and Colorado and Florida) they stop mattering again.
Optimism is fine, hopium is not.
Be an optimist. Be a pessimist. It doesn’t matter. The folks with the biggest thumbs on the scales are mega-donors, media magnets, and the majorities on various state and federal courts. At some point, you have to realize that your vote matters far less than there’s. It’s a rich man’s country, we just live in it.
I agree with your general view that it’s not actually time to relax.
But I will point out that you can’t just assume the electoral college advantage stays the same from election to election.
Biden won with 4.5% more of the national vote. Harris currently is polling at about half that. In the EC, Biden won by only 78,000 votes despite his large +4.5% popular vote lead.
In 2020, Biden won by 4.5% in the popular vote, but he won the tipping point state of Wisconsin by 0.6%. In other words, the electoral college was worth roughly a R+3.8% advantage in 2020 (yes, 4.5% minus 0.6% is 3.9% but when you use unrounded numbers it’s closer to 3.8%).
Is 2024 going to be the same? Probably not. The New York Times ran an article about this last month, and the tipping point state in the polling was Wisconsin, where Harris was polling at +1.8%, only 0.7% lower than the national average at the time of 2.6%. The article noted that national polling has Trump shrinking Harris’s lead in non-competitive blue states like California and New York, or expanding his lead in places like the deep south, while not gaining in actual swing states compared to 2020.
Note, however, that as of today, Harris’s lead in Wisconsin has shrunk to just under 1%, so we are seeing a shift towards Trump in the actual electoral college.
Right now, Harris is showing a lead in the national polling averages, by aggregator:
- 538: Harris up by 2.4%
- NYT: Harris up by 3%
- 270towin: Harris up 2.5%
- Nate Silver: Harris up 2.9%
It’s a close race, according to the polls. But whether the polls are actually accurate remains a huge unknown. So everyone should vote, and those with the means should volunteer.
I generally agree with you here, and I think we’re expressing a similar point. And the general sentiment that the electoral landscape can shift from one election to another is true, but I think it’s worth underscoring that the changes you’re discussing haven’t yet led to a significant break in the tightness of the 2024 race. The fact that Harris’s lead in Wisconsin has shrunk from 1.8% to just under 1% recently is exactly the point. This shows momentum shifting toward Trump, not to mention the same trend in other swing states.
You’re correct that the Electoral College advantage may change slightly in 2024, but as of now, the fundamentals we’re looking at are pointing toward a very close contest in the key battleground states. It’s not just the national polling averages that matter here—it’s the state-level dynamics that determine the outcome, and recent polls show the swing states tightening, which is why it’s reckless to assume Harris is in a secure position. Even Nate Silver’s model, which tends to account for some unpredictability, has downgraded Harris’s chances since the end of September.
National polling averages like the ones you cited (538, NYT, etc.) paint a picture of a close race, and while they show a lead for Harris, the recent shifts we’re seeing in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, among others, indicate that Trump is gaining ground. The fact that Harris’s national lead is shrinking in traditionally blue states like New York and California actually emphasizes her vulnerabilities in the swing states, where the race is most critical.
Bottom line: There’s no data right now that suggests a significant shift in the electoral college advantage for 2024. In fact, if anything, Trump’s recent gains are pushing the tipping point states even closer. With polls this tight and the Electoral College looking like a replay of 2020’s knife-edge margins, it’s exactly the wrong time to get complacent. Everyone should be treating this as an all-hands-on-deck situation.
agreed. Trumpers always underreport their support because they know its shameful and dont want to admit it. So the poll numbers are almost certainly worse for Harris than they appear. Harris (and Biden shares the blame) are on track to lose the election and destroy this country and its because she refuses to reverse herself on genocide support. She is doing this to herself.
Gaza consistently polls as one of the least important issues for voters. Among voters 18-29 of 16 issues presented in the Harvard IOP polls of that age group, it consistently comes in last or second to last in ratings of importance.
Seems pretty unrealistic to expect politicians to reverse their positions about things very few people care much about.
Neck and neck race. Shes currently sucking up to the NRA gun nuts trying to scrape the bottom of the barrel there. She clearly is scrambling for every possible voter she can without abandoning those sweet sweet AIPAC bribes. I guess we’ll see if you were right on Nov 3rd, and she just didnt flatly need those votes. But there are votes to be had there.
Very, very few. She’s likely to pick up more votes by going on Rogan than reversing herself on support of Israel. If she’s going to do that, it’s likely to occur after, not before, the election.
Uhhhh that would be voter fraud since I already voted.
Not if it’s knocking doors, offering to drive folks to the polls (where that’s still legal) or handing out water in under served districts with long lines (where that’s still legal)
Thanks for reminding me to vote today!
She will only win if you vote. Do not say “she’s got this, I’ll skip it.” Do not say “I can’t bring myself to vote for her.” Do not say “something something genocide.” Vote. For. Her.
Because if you don’t, he will win. And you’ll still get the genocide, plus so much other even worse shit.
She doesn’t “got this.” The election is too close for logic or comfort.
Do not say “I can’t bring myself to vote for her.” Do not say “something something genocide.” Vote. For. Her.
This… Did not work last time.
Yes it did. I swallowed my pride and voted for Biden. He won. trump was out. Now we have to keep him out.
Last time was Clinton, not Biden. Biden was a completely different situation.
That was 2016, “last time” was 2020.
You have a stroke or somethin’?
2020 had Trump as an incumbent, and while people were anxious about Biden’s age nobody was “holding their nose” to vote for him. He was viewed as a less than perfect option that would nevertheless bring normalcy back to the White House as a vanilla corporate Democrat president. That is not, in any way, comparable to the current situation where he’s the incumbent and despised by critical demographics for multiple failed policies whose successor explicitly states she’ll carry over. The last time Democrats had to go around saying “hold your nose and vote blue no matter who” was, indeed, 2016.
How was last time Clinton? Does Biden not count as a president? You know he won an election and became president right
Harris is way better but we chose her even less than we chose Hillary Clinton. Simply telling people to hold their noses wasn’t as effective as Biden’s campaign.
Except Harris isn’t cringe
Bruh we’re saying “something something genocide”.
So… not voting for her will work better?
It’s not comfortable until she hits 270…
That’s a tad old for a president
It’s a weight, not an age. Jordan is talking about their preference in romantic partners
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I wouldn’t count that comfortable in this election. Get her to 200 and the election deniers will have less fuel.
I will only be comfortable after she’s inaugurated.
I see someone learned from 2000
I can’t vote anymore… I already did!
Early voting starts next week for me… I guess my state is just later than all of yalls…
Well I vote by mail and live abroad - my ballot needed time to get to me and then get back to my city clerk.
“playing by the rules? That’s why dems lose!!!”- some ass.
I’ve decided not to vote at all in this US election. I know my vote won’t do anything on account of being Canadian.
Fair enough, I’m a US/Canadian dualie… our struggle is still coming up. Let’s hope we can keep PP out of Ottawa.
Fuck, I can only hope. People seem to hate Trudeau so much there’s a serious risk of Milhouse winning.
I’m registered and raring to go. I even have the day off, so I’m going. (I’ve voted in every single election)
Don’t vote? Then you don’t get to complain or criticize.
(I’ve voted in every single election)
How old are you??
About 300 years old it seems
You know what they say, “Vote early. Vote often.”
But like, actually do. Because there are a shitload of elections and state + local really matters too.
The fascists must be defeated at every level. It’s like treating cancer. The problem is not over before it’s all gone. And even then there’s a risk of it returning.
Yep. Virginia has it’s statewide position elections on the odd years. So it’s congressional and governor elections tend to have fewer people vote. However, the Dems have gotten wise and have managed to turn out more during these elections.
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I’m getting really close to being hopeful that I’m going to be in a swing state. 538 has slowly been showing it in lighter shades of red as we get closer. And the Senate race is polling closer than the last challenger who lost by <3%. If people turn up and vote, there’s a very good chance of excitement
Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.
2016 DNC Campaign literally moments before disaster.
I just came from the utterly brain dead “Harris cares about Gaza” meme post , so I can safely start labeling posts like these as hopium and accepting the status quo.
People really out here thinking the money from the biggest PAC is gonna both allow the dems to win and somehow convince them to actually pass significant legislation to improve literally anything for the middle class beyond token handouts and continuing to repair what Trump destroyed in like only 3 months of hime being in office.
Dunno how Republican turnout is gonna be, but Democrats are about to get a kick in the nuts from all the constituents they willingly chose to ignore. Might still win, but thinking it’s going to be easy is a false hope.
I don’t think anyone is under the illusion this will be easy. Winning will be hard enough but even then there will be massive hurdles to actually being inaugurated.
Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.
As much as I want to buy into this optimism, I’m having trouble equating Harris’s marginal lead in the average national polls with a comfortable electoral college lead.
When battleground state polling is within the margin for error for states she needs to win and the no toss-ups map looks like this, you really need to have an abundance of faith in professional poll aggregators’ judgement and weightings to feel comfortable.
From the data table at the bottom of this Nate Silver article (below the sports betting), he suggests Harris needs to win the popular vote by a +2 to +3 margin in order to have a greater than 50% probability of winning the electoral college. The latest polling from the Silver Bulletin has her at +2.9, just enough to give her “a slight advantage, but with emphasis on slight.”
Nothing about this makes me feel comfortable.
As much as I want to buy into this optimism, I’m having trouble equating Harris’s marginal lead in the average national polls with a comfortable electoral college lead.
Trump can win Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, AND Arizona but Harris would still win if she gets Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
That’s a comfortable lead no matter how you spin it. Its a lead, but within the margin of error. So there’s work to do, in particular we must now step to the polls and vote. Close this out.
National polls don’t matter. Ignore them. Focus on the electoral college maps and the specific states.
That’s a comfortable lead no matter how you spin it.
My brother in anti-Trumpism, the only spin here is yours in saying her lead is comfortable.
Your original OpEd focused on national polling, so that’s what I responded to. But yes, ignore the national polling, focus on the swing states, the electoral college is what counts.
From the same WaPo article as your picture is this swing state focused chart:
It shows the 2020 polling error, which was largely in Trump’s favor in swing states (other than GA). If the same polling error still exists now in 2024, all that comfort disappears. The polling error was even greater in Trump’s favor in 2016, however was in Obama’s favor in 2012.
The point not being that Trump will outperform the polls this time, but that margins of error matter, and the reality could swing either way. With polling in so many states being within the margins, we’re likely seeing the closest election of our lifetimes.
And all this isn’t meant to be doom and gloom, but I ain’t going into this election with Clinton levels of comfort, again. You’re absolutely right on the game plan though. If you live in any of these states, your vote this time will likely be more consequential than it ever will be.
Thanks for all the doom scrolling links.
Yeah and Nate Silver was calling a landslide Clinton victory, too. It’s just another talking head.
I was following that. Nate was saying 71.4% chance for Clinton (just checked again) when basically all of the rest of the media was treating it like 99%. Effectively he was the one suggesting she might actually lose. (Even if it still didn’t seem likely)
Just two days out he even had her probability of winning at just 64.2%, still better odds than what we’re seeing for Harris right now. And you’re right, he was the only reputable poll aggregator who was making downward adjustments of that magnitude, that late in the race.
Take action today! If nothing else it will help with anxiety
Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
I was incredibly happy to be able to vote by mail, I really hope that gets expanded! It was wonderful to be able to sit down and look up all the people I didn’t know about and read more about the propositions on the ballot and then make my decision. Just popped it in the mailbox on my way out to work and that was it! Easy easy.
Also: “Don’t talk yourself out of believing this lead because of a bad poll or two.”
Stop reading my comments Washington Post!! :P
In New Jersey, for every state-wide vote (so like excluding your local school board emergency vote or whatever), they send every registered voter a sample ballot like two weeks before voting day. It gives your name, address, district, voting location, poll hours, and a complete copy of the ballot as it’ll be shown to you. It really helps me be confident in my vote :)
I’ve been canvassing twice so far. The second time I wasn’t able to talk to anyone, but hopefully I will next time.
Nice, keep up the canavassing!
One thing I was told is that ringing the doorbell a second time after waiting a bit can increase the response rate. I haven’t tried it myself but was told by a couple of people that it helped a good amount
It can also just varies a lot day to day and location to location on the response rate. Some days more people answer the door, others day it seems emptier
I’ll try that thanks!
Hey, me too! This election is giving me too much anxiety to just sit around doing nothing. I live close to a swing state and spent last weekend canvassing there. At this stage in the campaign, the “convincing people” part is over - the focus is now on “get out the vote.” It was encouraging to talk to level-headed people who’d made plans to vote or who’d already dropped off their mail-in ballots.
Still, we can’t afford complacency. If anyone else feels the restless need to do something, but you don’t live in/near a swing state, you can volunteer for phone banking.
That election anxiety is there for a reason - let it empower you to leave your comfort zone for a few hours and make a difference where it counts.
