Last week, the Wall Street Journal published a 10-minute-long interview with OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, with journalist Joanna Stern asking a series of thoughtful yet straightforward questions that Murati failed to satisfactorily answer. When asked about what data was used to train Sora, OpenAI's app for generating video with AI,
Please god I hope so. I don’t see a path to anything significantly more powerful than current models in this paradigm. ANNs like these have existed forever and have always behaved the way current LLMs do, they just recently were able to make them run somewhat more efficiently with bigger context windows and training sets which birthed GPT3 which was further minimally tweaked into 3.5 and 4 among others. This feels a whole lot like a local maxima where anything better will have to go back down through another several development cycles before it surpasses the current gen.
I think GPT5 will be eye opening. If it is another big leap ahead then we are not in this local maxima, if it is a minor improvement then we may be in a local maxima.
Likely then the focus will shift to reducing hardward requirements for inforarance(?) Allowing bigger models to run better on smaller hardware
It takes what, a year minimum to design a chip? I think the iterative hardware-software cycle is just now properly getting a foothold on the architecture. The next few years are going to, at minimum, explore what lavishly-funded, purpose-built hardware can do for the field.
It’ll be years before we reach any kind of maximum. Even if the software doesn’t improve at all, which is unlikely, better utilization alone will make significant improvements on performance.
It feels a whole lot more like there are big things due with GPT5 and beyond.
Like, to be a successful actor in 2020 was to act, and stand in front of expensive equipment operated by specialized operators, with directors, makeup, catering… The production itself was/is its own production.
I predict that to be a successful actor in 2030, all you’ll need is a small amount of money to utilize some powerful processors over the internet, enter in a few photos of your face, give it 10 different ideas for a movie, until it to make some 2 hour films where you are the star. Then you’ll take one of them that you kind of like, throw some prompts at it and end up with a nearly finished Hollywood quality film.
To be a successful musician in 1960, you needed to get a record deal, you needed to go to a recording studio. Now we’ve got Jacob Collier winning Grammys, recording everything in his bedroom. I think we’re going to see that kind of history repeat itself on steroids. Not just for art, though. For anything.
With the rapid advancements were seeing in robotics right now, I can’t imagine a single thing that people do that won’t be done better by autonomous agents, both programmatic and robotic, in the next 5 years or so.
Good god I hope not.